Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Villa's Improbable Title Charge

It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the source for the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Sideline Explosion of Joy

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

A reversion to average might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent might become the force he showed during his peak.
  • The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.

Kyle Shannon
Kyle Shannon

A professional sports analyst with over a decade of experience in UK betting markets, specializing in football and horse racing strategies.