Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
